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Market Snapshot: Our Time has come as it’s a Stock- Pickers Market
PLUS: Price Sensitive Previews STL, COG and RDT
… if there are solid figures on Wednesday from UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production it may be of political help for the Chancellor ahead of March 18th Budget. The Eurozone Industrial Production is on Thursday, there is another Greek deadline on Monday but the QE program is likely to paper over any creaks.
Remember that bad can be good for market and US Retails Sales are on Thursday but before that the Treasury makes a Budget Statement on Wednesday.
China’s Industrial production growth is early in the week and could create some market volatility. Markets seem to be slowing down so it a chance for stock-pickers to shine.
Last week …
… previews EMR 50p now 53.5p, ITQ 84p now 87.5p……
… markets stood still(ish). The FTSE 100 was 0.29% lower at 6,911, with the Aim All Share, 0.54% better followed by the FTSE 250’s 0.03% gain and the FTSE Small cap unchanged at 4,549. The UK’s key PMIs Construction at 60.1 and Manufacturing at 54.1 rose but Services fell to 56.7. The week was defined by two major events; euro growth and Us Jobs;
Eurozone being better than terrible with Retails Sales growing by a robust 3.7% and the 1.1 trillion QE is yet to start.
US Unemployment fell to a 7 year low at 5.5% as jobs rose by 295,000. At this stage of the recovery, good economics can mean bad news for monetary policy. Despite the Fed managing expectations sensitively the odds must be narrowing for interest rates to increase within three months which is still likely to temporarily shock US investors.
Pause for Thought
Osborne’s Feel-good factor; The Chancellor has plans to raise 25% Tax from US tech giants such as Google, Facebook and Amazon.
Last week EMR 50p now 53.5p, ITQ 84p now 87.5p
STL Strong Opportunity to Convert to Growth
COG Classic hockey stick formation
RDT Clever should not be so cheap
Stilo International (LSE: STL) – 2.5p (2p-3p) – Mkt Cap: £2.75m
Next Results: Finals Thursday 12th
January’s Trading Statement for the year to 31 December 2014, reported that although profitable, revenues and EBITDA would be below expectations. The moderate easing of the share price was perhaps due to the £1m net cash held, which is after paying an interim dividend of 0.03p. After the Interims, the Chairman brought £24k’s worth of shares at 3p, taking his holding to just over 11%.
STL provide XML content processing technology and cloud content conversion services through Migrate. This is a cloud service that enables organizations to automate the conversion of their content to XML, providing for greater control over content quality, This can be sold as ASAS or on licence. It dramatically reduces the time and cost of conversion projects of ALL sizes, from just a few hundred pages, up to many thousands of pages, and enables very rich content — including text, graphics, tables and equations — to be converted with a high degree of precision and quality. Demand should grow as large organisations need to process ever increasing amounts of digital content and publish information to multiple media channels including print, web, CD-ROM, smartphones, ebook readers and mobile device. Stilo’s solutions are used by commercial publishers, technology companies and government agencies and include organisations involved in the production and maintenance of technical documentation.
Sales for 2014 were impacted by the shelving of a significant project by a major European customer. The Company continues to trade satisfactorily and other customers include SAP, Intel, Atmel, IBM and Vestas. Good progress is being made with the development of AuthorBridge, a new web-based XML authoring solution being piloted with a major customer in early 2015. Thursday’s finals should allow for an upgrade of prospects.
At the interims sales were £617k on which a profit of £40k there is no debt and net cash of £1m.
There should be a global market for its products and Stylo have the cash to get on with it. Otherwise it may make an attractive acquisition target which may be supported by 32% shareholder Brewin Dolphin.
Cambridge Cognition Holdings (LSE: COG) – 76p (73-78p) – Mkt Cap: £12.4m
Next Results: Finals Thursday 12th
Thursday’s finals are reported earlier than last year and it is usually quicker to add –up good figures. We reported directors’ share buying at 62p after the improved interims. Further improvement should mark the end of the development stage and that current year could be profitable.
COG’s software and business model has been developing for 25 years. Turnover for the six months to June 2014 improved by 25% to £2.5m and losses were reduced by £1m to £0.47m partly due to lower administration costs. The gross margin is an attractive 87%. A new product was launched in January which is a new iPad research product for rapid cognitive assessment. Cantab Connect technology provides valid, reliable and replicable data with its highly validated touchscreen tests delivered on iPad devices which can be used by researchers who are not experts in cognition to get the results they need.
COG has three divisions, which after time and effort are at last becoming rising ‘older’ stars. The strong contributions from the Cantab Research Suite, which is focused on academic and clinical trials has laid the foundation for a return to growth and a number of significant new contracts converted in the first half are now contributing to revenues. The Government’s investment to improve early dementia diagnosis positions Cantab Mobile to be a significant contributor to this step-change in dementia care. COG is part of the £53m public-private partnership to accelerate progress in dementia research. It seems likely that losses will be further reduced for the December 2014 year-end with a potential ‘hockey-stick’ profits jump for 2015, for example profits of £600k would give a P/E of 20x.
The interims reported a significant reduction in net cash outflow from operations to £0.65m from £1.43m. The net-cash of £1.5m should be sufficient to achieve profitably but perhaps with not much margin for error.
The actual ‘hockey-stick’ maybe at the next interims but with increasing turnover on a fixed cost base these finals should provide strong evidence.
Last OMG! Price 70p
Rosslyn Data Technologies (LSE: RDT) – 17.5p (16-18p) – Mkt Cap: £12.45
Next Results: Finals to April RNS est. August
Rosslyn Data Technologies is unsurprisingly in data technology and has developed smart technologies to enable companies of all sizes to turn complex data into meaningful information. Since the placing at 33p in April 2014 real business traction is being made and with net cash of around £6m the momentum could be building.
At the end of February 2015 a Partnership agreement was signed with E&I, an American company to provide cloud-based spend analytics services to its 3,000 members in the United States via its E&I Consulting Group division. A Partnership strategy is central to future growth plans as they enable Rosslyn to grow over a shorter time frame, whilst giving geographical reach and access to multiple new applications and this is being shown through a shorter sales cycle. RDT can through its patented ‘engine’ take raw near corrupted data apply tools and other data sources to turn into information which can then be interrogated to give timely, accurate management information. Eg. When the Swiss untied the euro a company could run a check from its sales base to find its exposure by delving into client group account subsidiaries. Revenue is generated from a per-seat basis but new applications being developed as specific software solutions. RDT are well positioned to benefit from increasing opportunities in its key markets which are being driven by the need for more data driven decision making efficiency gains, cost savings, and improved sales and marketing effectiveness and regulatory compliance needs. Clients include Aberdeen Asset Management plc, Babcock Corporate Services plc, Xerox Business Services and Coca-Cola Enterprises The interims reported a 23% increase in revenue to £1.25m with a £1.6m loss and gross margins of 88%.
There is net cash for £6m which assuming similar losses should be sufficient for two years.
A well-run company with high value marketing niche which should do well as new contracts are won and applications created.